All the key info as Gartner, IDC and Canalys clash on PC market growth in Q1

Analysts give differing opinions on component shortages, the role of the PC post-pandemic and pent up demand

The three key analyst houses the IT industry uses to size up the market have each given differing accounts of how the PC market performed in Q1 and how they expect it to develop for the rest of the year.

Canalys, Gartner and IDC have each published their own figures on how the PC market performed in Q1, with all analysts agreeing that the market saw high double-digit growth during the quarter.

Although each analyst house agree the market grew compared to Q1 in the previous year, there's a huge discrepancy between the three firms as to how much.

IDC believes PC shipments rocketed by 55 per cent in Q1 to 83.98 million units. Meanwhile Gartner says the market grew by just 32 per cent to 69.9 million units - almost half as quickly as IDC believes.

Canalys meanwhile sits closer to IDC's interpretation, also claiming that shipments grew by 55 per cent but to 82.7 million units.

The analyst houses have frequently disagreed on how the PC market is performing. Gartner has historically taken a more pessimistic or conservative approach to the PC market than IDC and Canalys. For the same quarter last year, Gartner claimed that PC shipments tumbled by 12.3 per cent while Canalys and IDC had it at a less severe eight per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively.

The commentary

As well as providing growth rates and shipments figures for the quarter, each analyst gave a brief commentary on how the PC market is performing.

Canalys says that Q1 2021 recorded the highest first quarter shipment number for the PC market for nine years - since 2012.

IDC's analysis follows a similar train of thought, claiming that Q1 of 2021 showed the lowest sequential shipment decline from the previous Q4 since 2012. Shipments only declined by eight per cent sequentially in Q1, claims IDC.

Despite Gartner's figures reflecting a more subdued market than Canalys and IDC, it claims that the PC market recorded its fastest year-on-year growth since it began tracking figures in 2000.

Canalys claims that a huge backlog on orders from 2020 - particularly for notebooks - propelled the overall market in Q1. It claims notebook and mobile workstation shipments increased by 79 per cent year on year to 67.8 million units while desktop shipments fell by five per cent annually to 14.8 million units.

Unsurprisingly, all three analyst houses point to ongoing component shortages that continue to affect the PC market.

IDC claims that the market "continues to struggle" with component shortages and logistics issues which has contributed to an increase in average selling prices.

Gartner agrees that the shortages are "adversely" affecting the market and causing lead times to extend to as long as four months.

Canalys meanwhile says that component shortages are "a good problem to have" for the PC market.

"As average prices rise due to the scarcity of internal hardware, innovation in design is triggering long-term changes to the way PC vendors approach supply and demand.

"Chipmakers, too, are now bullish about personal computing, and have increased their planned future investments to capitalize on the long-term opportunity. While the pandemic is not over just yet, there is light at the end of the tunnel. This is also spurring SMB investment in computing, which halted abruptly in 2020," said Canalys research director Rushabh Doshi.

Canalys adds that it expects the PC market to be supply constrained for most of the year.

The PC market was in steady decline before the Covid pandemic. It had suffered seven years of decline up until 2019 when Windows 7 refreshes brought it back to growth.

But has the Covid pandemic prompted a long-term renaissance for the PC market?

IDC and Gartner seem to think so.

IDC believes there has been a "fundamental shift" in the market and expects the PC to post a more positive outlook for years to come.

"All three segments - business, education, and consumer - are experiencing demand that we didn't expect to happen regardless of many countries beginning their ‘opening up' process," said Ryan Reith, programme VP with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.

Gartner meanwhile concludes that PC demand could remain strong even after stay-at-home restrictions are lifted.

All three analyst firms have Lenovo, HP and Dell as the top three PC vendors respectively in Q1. All three also agree that Lenovo and HP outpaced Dell in the PC market in Q1, with Dell lagging behind at around 12-23 per cent growth compared to HP and Lenovo which hovered around the 60 per cent mark according to IDC and Canalys or in the 30s or 40s by Gartner's interpretation.